Certain we solely learn about some ports, remakes, and a Peach sport, however that is 12 months 8 of a console and a brand new one is coming. Proper?
This time final 12 months, we solely knew about 5 video video games confirmed to be popping out from Nintendo on the Change in 2023. These comprised 4 video games within the first 5 months and an unidentified Pikmin launch. We had all types of chatter again then about nothing of significance hitting the Change after the Could launch of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. Now that we’ve made it by 2023, we now know these considerations have been absolute malarkey.
Past these 5 confirmed for 2023 video games, we had round 10 extra come out all year long. We had the shadowdrops of Metroid Prime Remastered, Pikmin 1+2, and F-Zero 99. We had the shock Mario video games in Tremendous Mario Bros. Marvel and Tremendous Mario RPG. We had a brand new WarioWare, the long-awaited Detective Pikachu sequel, and a 1-2-Change sequel nobody requested for. It was, by most accounts, a very strong 12 months for Nintendo in what is going to probably be the waning days of the Change.
And now we’re in 2024, waiting for a 12 months that has comparable unknowns. Very like 2023, we solely learn about 5 video games which are publicly confirmed for 2024. Three of them have launch dates, with One other Code Recollection in January, Mario vs. Donkey Kong in February, and Princess Peach: Showtime in March. Luigi’s Mansion 2 HD and Paper Mario: The Thousand-12 months Door are at the moment slated for launch someday this 12 months, probably in spring and summer season respectively. Past that, we’ve a number of unknowns and a few DLC within the type of Splatoon 3’s enlargement. Metroid Prime 4 continues to be a specter, hanging out ominously within the background.
It’s noticeable that of the 5 video games recognized for 2024, 4 of them are ports and remakes, with Princess Peach’s newest journey being the one wholly model new sport. Additionally, we’re about to enter the Change’s eighth 12 months, so that is frankly simply an unprecedented territory for Nintendo. However this 12 months is perhaps totally different as a result of Nintendo may need a brand new console launch. So let’s dig into some previous precedents to see if we will use these to divine what we would anticipate from 2024.
So for the Change, we first formally came upon concerning the system in October 2016 – 5 months earlier than the system got here out. We obtained the official rollout of launch date and particulars in January 2017 – lower than two months earlier than. So far as the official reveal of a system, the Change was a wildly fast turnaround. The 3DS was recognized for 9 months earlier than launch. The Wii U was formally recognized for practically 18 months earlier than launch. However in each circumstances, the rollout of launch date and particulars was much like the Change, with the Wii U and 3DS getting their launch lineups confirmed about two months previous to launch.
Utilizing that, we will fairly assume that Nintendo will give us a launch date and lineup about two months earlier than a Change’s successor’s launch. They’ve been remarkably constant about that for the previous 20 years. I gained’t fairly name it a assure however I’d be shocked if that doesn’t maintain true.
However when will Nintendo formally acknowledge the existence of a brand new platform? I’d personally say as early as February, as that’s when Nintendo is subsequent scheduled to handle shareholders throughout their earnings launch for the third quarter of this present fiscal 12 months. Although extra realistically we would not hear about something till the spring and even summer season. From there, it relies upon when this new platform comes out, as frankly Nintendo can sample the discharge equally to the Change.
Utilizing that as the rule, let’s paint some potential reveal timelines.
Right here’s what I’d say is the almost definitely: Nintendo formally publicizes the brand new console in June 2024, following that up with an actual launch date and particulars in September in line for a November launch.
In fact there’s additionally the pessimistic view of one thing virtually instantly mapping to the Change’s playbook. Perhaps the brand new console doesn’t get the complete reveal till October, lining up for a January 2025 launch date affirmation and a March 2025 launch. Hey – it labored for the Change!
However there’s additionally a extra aggressive and dare I say thrilling choice. Nintendo may formally announce this sucker in April 2024, resulting in a summer season launch date particulars drop and a September or October launch. I’d favor that barely extra as a result of Nintendo has been favoring placing out their marquee video games earlier within the holidays than ever earlier than. Nintendo’s largest vacation title of 2023 got here out in October within the type of Tremendous Mario Marvel. You could possibly even argue Tears of the Kingdom was Nintendo’s largest 2023 vacation title and that was launched months earlier than the vacation season. In 2022, Pokemon Scarlet and Violet have been November releases however The Pokemon Firm generally marches to the beat of their very own drum. Purely from Nintendo, Splatoon 3 was the largest vacation title and that hit in September. 2021 was an identical story, with Pokemon’s Diamond and Pearl remakes taking the beforehand prime November interval whereas Mario Occasion Superstars and Metroid Dread have been each launched in October, even for those who may simply declare Mario Occasion and Metroid aren’t main releases.
At this level, it appears like October has taken over November for the best focus of marquee video games. It extends past Nintendo, as Sony and Microsoft are releasing their main vacation video games in September and October. Even your Ubisofts and EAs are placing out their largest video games in October as an alternative. Name of Obligation and Pokemon appear to be the one two mainstays that hit constantly in November, and Name of Obligation has had the occasional October launch. The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Collection S/X each got here out in November in 2020, however 2020 can also be a unicorn 12 months and I’m unsure how a lot we will divine from peak COVID leisure launches.
To summarize, Nintendo’s 2024 will likely be fantastic, probably dominated by remakes and ports earlier than we get nearer to a brand new console launch. We nonetheless positively have extra video games on Change to look ahead to, even when a few of them is perhaps cross-gen. Past that, we should always in all probability discover out concerning the subsequent system by the summer season. And in addition there’s in all probability a brand new Pokemon sport in November. That simply appears to occur yearly except there’s DLC, and we simply had DLC in 2023’s vacation season.